UK economy set to outpace most G7 peers, says OECD

The UK economy is forecast to outstrip its G7 peers in the second quarter of this year, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The OECD predicted the UK would grow at an annualised rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2010.  Such a rate would put the UK ahead of the US, Japan, Germany, France and Italy.  The British Chambers of Commerce also said the UK had avoided a double-dip recession in the first quarter of 2010.  However, the BCC warned that the UK's recovery was weak and there remained a risks of setbacks in the future.

On a global level, the OECD cautioned that overall growth would be slower in the main industrialised nations during the first half of 2010.

"Despite some encouraging signs on activity, the fragility of the recovery, a frail labour market and possible headwinds coming from financial markets underscore the need for caution in the removal of policy support," its report said.

The British Chambers of Commerce survey of 5,500 UK businesses suggested the service sector was the main bright spot in the UK economy.

A separate report on the service sector, in the form of the purchasing managers index (PMI), suggested that it slowed down in the last month of the quarter, although that was compared to a particularly strong figure in February.  The two are not strictly comparable. Unlike the BCC, the PMI does not include retailers and also only covers the month of March. Where the two reports do agree is that the economy is brightening, although it remains patchy and fragile.

The director general of the BCC, David Frost, told the BBC: "Any thoughts we may have slipped back have not materialised, but the recovery needs to be nurtured."

It warned that the recovery was weak and "serious risks of a setback remain", with the manufacturing sector still struggling.

Paul Smith, senior economist at Markit, which co-produces the PMI, said: "The UK recovery remains on track, with the service sector posting a pace of expansion consistent with those seen at the end of 2009."

Manufacturing orders for the first three months of this year were little higher than in the previous three months, according to the BCC, but new orders continued to fall and employment in the sector suffered a setback after an encouraging fourth quarter in 2009.

The UK economy emerged from recession in the final quarter of last year, after six consecutive quarters of contraction.

The latest official figures show the economy grew by 0.4% in the last three months of 2009, up from the original estimate of 0.1%.

Posted at 08:25PM Apr 07, 2010 by Kelly Board in The Economy  |  Comments[0]

Denial Over Debt

A third of people with debt problems have not told their family or partner, according to fresh research by insolvency trade body R3.

The trade body said that 30 per cent of those struggling financially without help have not told those closest to them, and a further 19 per cent of those said they couldn’t  face opening their bills.

Peter Sargent., R3 president, said: ““Here lies the damming spiral of personal debt. “Even after a long recession people are still terrified to ‘own up’ to debt problems. Yet this ultimately makes the issue worse – we know there is a group who are not addressing their financial problems and can’t even come clean to partners or family about them.”

He added: “In my years as an insolvency practitioner, I have seen many cases of people coming into my office with unopened bills. We need to break this cycle of fear. Even people who do seek advice usually delay six months in doing so.”

And in fresh evidence about the confusion regarding debt advice, 21 per cent of people said “they didn’t know where to go for help.”

A staggering 90 per cent of the group surveyed thought that lessons in how to manage money should be taught in schools to increase awareness. While nearly half, 44 per cent, thought they have to pay for advice. 

Posted at 12:18PM Apr 07, 2010 by Marc Stenton in Insolvency  |  Comments[0]